Boof Bonser and important dates

Post-winter meetings / holidays hiatus is over and it's time to get back in the swing of things. I did write a detailed blog post about why Max Ramirez for Mike Lowell was a steal, but we all know what a joke that situation turned out to be.

The coverage of the John Lackey, Mike Cameron, and Adrian Beltre signings were pretty intense in the media and blogs, I still think Mr. Average Fan is not pleased with what Theo Epstein is trying to do [don't get me started on how the public and media took The Bridge comment out of context], but I love it, especially with the short contracts outside of Lackey, thus being major players in free agency next year and in the trade market this summer.

The person I've been looking at recently, and getting pretty intrigued by, is Boof Bonser. Singing him to a non-guaranteed contract was brilliant and brings nothing but upside for no risk.

After having labrum and rotator cuff surgery in February of last year he came back and pitched 1.0 inning at the end of last season in A-ball and was throwing 94 MPH.

Here are his career numbers as a starter and what he did as a relief pitcher in 2008.

IP

ERA

WHIP

FIP

FWHIP

SO/9

SO/BB

HR/9

Starter

336.7

4.92

1.41

4.60

1.36

6.9

2.4

1.4

'08 RP

52.0

5.88

1.58

4.01

1.23

9.5

3.4

1.4

 

Clearly the ERA and WHIP as a relief pitcher don't mesh with the peripherals; you can thank a .374 BABIP for that. But the spike in dominance and command are very interesting, and his FIP and FIP-WHIP were promising.

He is basically a neutral groundball/flyball pitcher who's had a bit of bad luck gopheritis. Hopefully limiting his repertoire out of the pen can help in these areas.

Important dates:
Pitchers and catchers, Feb 19
First workout, Feb 20
Position players, Feb 23
First full workout, Feb 24
First game, Mar 3

The Scutaro animosity is laughable

I am pretty shocked at the level of hate some fans have for the Red Sox signing Marco Scutaro.

He is an average to sometimes spectacular shortstop that refuses to swing at pitches outside of the strike zone, is one of the toughest strikeouts in the league, and is a downright pain in the rear to opposing pitchers. Along with Victor Martinez and Matt Holliday or Jason Bay, the Red Sox lineup 1-9 will now NOT HAVE A SINGLE BLACK HOLE. That is ridiculous.

I could see people being upset if we gave him 4 or 5 years at big money, or if we were not a serious championship contender, but for whatever reason he decided to sign before the winter meetings at short years and money... and people are still upset Theo Epstein didn't bring back Alex Gonzalez and his .300 OBP? Really?

At the end of the day Marco Scutaro is going to decide if he wants his contract to be 2-years, $12.5M or 3-years, $14M. For solid SS defense and on-base skills that is a flat-out steal.

Oh well, I suppose some people won't be happy until we have Hanley Ramirez playing short... or Alex Gonzalez, apparently.

Theo Epstein is a genius

Theo Epstein wants Billy Wagner. Wagner will not waive his no-trade clause unless the Red Sox give up their right to offer arbitration. Epstein doesn't blink. At the last minute, Wagner drops that demand and the Red Sox trade Chris Carter and Eddie Lora to the Mets. Wagner pitches the rest of the season and playoffs for the Red Sox. The Red Sox offer Wagner arbitration. Hours later the Braves sign Billy Wagner and the Red Sox collect the #20 pick in the 2010 draft and a supplemental first round pick.

Recap: The Red Sox turn Chris Carter and Eddie Lora into the #20 and roughly #40 picks in the 2010 draft.

Theo Epstein is a genius.

Multiyear BPV's for Red Sox pitchers

Base Performance Value, a baseballhq.com stat, measures a pitchers' skill set based on K/9, BB/9 and GB%. Generally a starter should be above 50 for any shot at sustained success and a relief pitcher higher than that.

What I have done here is listed the BVP's for players who have pitched in consecutive seasons with the Red Sox to show which direction their skills are heading.

 

mybpv.gif

It's nice that Beckett's option vested for 2010 and we don't need to give him huge money this offseason. It will be interesting to see which direction he goes next year.

Lester's line speaks for itself, three consecutive jumps and is already elite.

Papelbon's 2009 was very concerning for a while, but now not so much. He talked about how he was working on some things and trying to keep his arm fresh, so we shall see. His K/BB did improve from 2.3 to 5.8 from the 1st half to the 2nd half.

Okajima, slipping... his arbitration years should be interesting.

Delcarmen was being viewed as a potential closer target for many teams heading into the 2009 season, but as you can see he was a complete disaster this year. He's still young and presumably there are no major arm issues, but the fall across the board is frightening.

Schilling trashes ALDS umpires in BOS/LAAA series

"To be honest one of my biggest fears is the umpiring crew. This is about as bad a crew as I have ever seen assembled. Joe West for all his pomp and circumstance can ump a game. C.B. Buckner? Greg Gibson? Not so much. I'm blown away that A) they made the postseason and B) they are umping what I think will be the most watched series. If I HAD to put them on the postseason roster, I'd try and hide them on the outfield foul lines of Colorado. Look for BOTH to have game impact in this series."

--- Curt Schilling

LINK

Red Sox Starters... Dominant, Disaster, Neutral

Numbers are based on Pure Quality Starts, which ranks starts on a 0-5 scale based on innings, hits allowed, strikeouts, strikeouts to walks, and home runs allowed.

Scores of 0-1 are a Disaster, 2-3 are Neutral, and 4-5 are Dominant.

 

pith.gifIn case you were curious, Zack Greinke had 29 Dominant, 4 Neutral and no Disasters.

Felix Hernandez had 26 Dominant, 6 Neutral and 2 Disasters.

The 115 LIMA Plan pitchers of 2009

LIMA: Low Investment Mound Aces

--- have a strikeout rate [K/9] of 5.6 or better.
--- have a home run rate [HR/9] of 1.0 per 9 IP or less.
--- have a strikeout to walk ratio [K/BB] of 2.0 or better.
 
I used a cutoff of 36 IP. The list is interesting to look over, there are some surprising names. It also gives you a quick idea of names to put on your early 2010 watch list. Only the Pirates failed to be represented.
 

 

 

G

IP

 

WHIP

 

FIP

xERA

 

BABIP

LOB%

 

BR/9

H/9

HR/9

 

K/9

BB/9

K/BB

ARI

Juan Gutierrez

65

71.0

 

1.37

 

2.94

2.51

 

.316

69%

 

12.7

8.5

0.3

 

8.4

3.8

2.2

ARI

Jon Rauch

58

54.3

 

1.36

 

3.94

3.99

 

.294

71%

 

12.4

9.4

0.8

 

5.8

2.8

2.1

ARI

Chad Qualls

51

52.0

 

1.15

 

3.08

3.63

 

.304

71%

 

10.7

9.2

0.9

 

7.8

1.2

6.4

ARI

Clay Zavada

49

51.0

 

1.35

 

3.86

3.54

 

.292

77%

 

12.7

7.9

0.9

 

9.2

4.2

2.2

ARI

Leo Rosales

33

45.3

 

1.15

 

3.90

3.81

 

.254

62%

 

10.3

7.9

1.0

 

6.2

2.4

2.6

ATL

Javier Vazquez

32

219.3

1.03

2.71

2.96

.283

77%

9.4

7.4

0.8

9.8

1.8

5.4

ATL

Jair Jurrjens

34

215.0

1.21

3.62

3.14

.268

79%

11.1

7.8

0.6

6.4

3.1

2.0

ATL

Tommy Hanson

21

127.7

1.18

3.44

3.03

.275

80%

11.0

7.4

0.7

8.2

3.2

2.5

ATL

Rafael Soriano

77

75.7

1.06

2.48

2.39

.275

77%

9.6

6.3

0.7

12.1

3.2

3.8

ATL

Mike Gonzalez

80

74.3

1.20

3.46

2.98

.275

79%

11.6

6.8

0.8

10.9

4.0

2.7

ATL

Kris Medlen

37

67.7

1.40

3.29

3.25

.324

70%

12.9

8.6

0.7

9.6

4.0

2.4

ATL

Eric O'Flaherty

78

56.3

1.24

3.39

2.68

.292

72%

12.1

8.3

0.3

6.2

2.9

2.2

ATL

Tim Hudson

7

42.3

1.46

3.77

4.24

.338

80%

13.2

10.4

0.9

6.4

2.8

2.3

BAL

Jim Johnson

64

70.0

 

1.37

 

4.24

4.32

 

.300

76%

 

12.7

9.4

1.0

 

6.3

3.0

2.1

BAL

Koji Uehara

12

66.7

 

1.24

 

3.50

4.05

 

.302

68%

 

11.2

9.6

0.9

 

6.5

1.6

4.0

BAL

George Sherrill

42

41.3

 

1.14

 

3.18

2.86

 

.272

85%

 

10.7

7.4

0.7

 

8.5

2.8

3.0

BOS

Jon Lester

32

203.3

1.23

3.09

3.40

.313

77%

11.2

8.2

0.9

10.0

2.8

3.5

BOS

Justin Masterson

31

72.0

1.35

3.73

3.76

.314

70%

12.9

9.0

0.9

8.4

3.1

2.7

BOS

Jonathan Papelbon

66

68.0

1.15

2.99

2.71

.278

89%

10.9

7.1

0.7

10.1

3.2

3.2

BOS

Takashi Saito

56

55.7

1.35

4.19

3.79

.289

89%

12.9

8.1

1.0

8.4

4.0

2.1

BOS

Daniel Bard

49

49.3

1.28

3.32

3.24

.303

71%

12.0

7.5

0.9

11.5

4.0

2.9

CHA

Gavin Floyd

30

193.0

 

1.23

 

3.71

3.80

 

.284

70%

 

11.1

8.3

1.0

 

7.6

2.8

2.8

CHA

Jose Contreras

21

114.7

 

1.45

 

4.07

4.04

 

.304

57%

 

13.5

9.5

0.9

 

7.0

3.5

2.0

CHA

D.J. Carrasco

49

93.3

 

1.41

 

3.40

3.44

 

.319

72%

 

12.9

9.9

0.5

 

6.0

2.8

2.1

CHA

Matt Thornton

70

72.3

 

1.08

 

2.40

2.51

 

.298

79%

 

9.8

7.2

0.6

 

10.8

2.5

4.4

CHA

Octavio Dotel

62

62.3

 

1.44

 

3.83

3.71

 

.313

80%

 

13.0

7.8

1.0

 

10.8

5.2

2.1

CHA

Freddy Garcia

9

56.0

 

1.21

 

3.29

3.40

 

.295

66%

 

10.9

9.0

0.6

 

5.9

1.9

3.1

CHN

Ryan Dempster

31

200.0

 

1.31

 

3.81

3.97

 

.302

73%

 

12.0

8.8

1.0

 

7.7

2.9

2.6

CHN

Randy Wells

27

165.3

 

1.28

 

3.83

3.71

 

.288

76%

 

11.8

9.0

0.8

 

5.7

2.5

2.3

CIN

Nick Masset

74

76.0

 

1.03

 

3.17

2.71

 

.250

80%

 

9.2

6.4

0.7

 

8.3

2.8

2.9

CIN

Jared Burton

53

59.3

 

1.42

 

3.98

3.79

 

.298

72%

 

13.4

9.3

0.8

 

6.8

3.5

2.0

CIN

Arthur Rhodes

66

53.3

 

1.07

 

3.15

2.36

 

.238

78%

 

9.8

6.2

0.5

 

8.1

3.4

2.4

CLE

Cliff Lee

22

152.0

 

1.30

 

3.20

3.48

 

.318

79%

 

11.9

9.8

0.6

 

6.3

2.0

3.2

COL

Ubaldo Jimenez

33

218.0

 

1.23

 

3.30

2.78

 

.280

74%

 

11.5

7.6

0.5

 

8.2

3.5

2.3

COL

Jorge de la Rosa

33

185.0

 

1.38

 

3.85

3.79

 

.308

72%

 

12.8

8.4

1.0

 

9.4

4.0

2.3

COL

Jason Hammel

34

176.7

 

1.39

 

3.65

4.14

 

.326

70%

 

12.9

10.3

0.9

 

6.8

2.1

3.2

COL

Huston Street

64

61.7

 

0.91

 

2.88

3.00

 

.240

74%

 

8.2

6.3

1.0

 

10.2

1.9

5.4

DET

Justin Verlander

35

240.0

 

1.18

 

2.74

3.07

 

.319

73%

 

10.8

8.2

0.8

 

10.1

2.4

4.3

DET

Bobby Seay

67

48.7

 

1.29

 

3.55

3.15

 

.291

70%

 

12.2

8.5

0.6

 

6.8

3.1

2.2

FLA

Josh Johnson

33

209.0

 

1.16

 

3.00

2.89

 

.290

75%

 

10.7

7.9

0.6

 

8.2

2.5

3.3

FLA

Burke Badenhop

35

72.0

 

1.32

 

3.40

3.35

 

.306

72%

 

12.0

8.9

0.6

 

7.1

3.0

2.4

FLA

Kiko Calero

67

60.0

 

1.10

 

2.51

1.37

 

.254

82%

 

10.1

5.4

0.2

 

10.4

4.5

2.3

FLA

Brian Sanches

47

56.3

 

1.35

 

4.09

3.48

 

.281

85%

 

13.1

8.0

0.8

 

8.2

4.2

2.0

HOU

Wandy Rodriguez

33

205.7

 

1.24

 

3.48

3.63

 

.302

79%

 

11.4

8.4

0.9

 

8.4

2.8

3.1

HOU

Roy Oswalt

30

181.3

1.24

3.71

3.93

.298

73%

11.6

9.1

0.9

6.9

2.1

3.3

HOU

Jeff Fulchino

61

82.0

1.18

3.51

3.23

.276

74%

11.0

7.7

0.8

7.8

3.0

2.6

HOU